More than 1 million people in Lebanon are expected to face a food insecurity crisis in the coming months due to renewed conflict and mass displacement, according to an analysis released on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. Lebanon is experiencing a food security crisis stemming from Israel's offensive against the militant group Hezbollah, which has disrupted supplies and driven up prices. Israel began pounding southern Lebanon, particularly the south, on March 2 after Hezbollah fired on it. A two-day-old ceasefire has since halted U.S. And Israeli airstrikes on Iran, offering a brief respite in the escalating tensions.
The economic repercussions of the conflict are already acutely felt. The price of vegetables has soared by more than 20% and bread prices have increased by 17% since March 2, placing a significant burden on Lebanese households. Despite these immediate challenges, the Lebanese Ministry of Economy and Trade has stated that Lebanon's food stocks are sufficient for three to four months. The ministry also affirmed that supply chains and import-export operations are functioning normally at ports and land crossings, attempting to reassure the public amidst growing concerns.
Wider Economic Ripples
Regional conflict is driving up fuel and food prices, impacting global economic forecasts and creating a ripple effect far beyond the immediate conflict zone. World Bank President Ajay Banga stated in an interview with Reuters on Friday that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will have a cascading impact on the global economy. Banga noted that inflation could increase by 200 to 300 basis points in a baseline scenario. He questioned whether the current peace and upcoming negotiations would lead to a lasting peace and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that if conflict were to break out again, it could have an even larger or longer-term impact on energy infrastructure.
Providing a more detailed outlook, Ajay Banga stated that global growth could decrease by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points in a baseline scenario, assuming an early end to the conflict. The inflation impact could reach up to 0.9 percentage points if the conflict persists, further eroding purchasing power worldwide.
The World Bank’s baseline estimate projects growth in emerging markets and developing economies at 3.65% for 2026, a reduction from its October forecast of 4%. In a more adverse scenario with a prolonged conflict, growth in these economies could fall as low as 2.6%, noting the severe potential economic downturn. Inflation in emerging markets and developing economies was forecast to reach 4.9% in 2026, an increase from the previous estimate of 3%. An extreme scenario could see inflation in these regions rising as high as 6.7%, posing significant challenges for economic stability and poverty reduction efforts.
The conflict has caused the price of oil to increase by 50%, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk and supply concerns in global energy markets. It has also disrupted supplies of oil, gas, fertilizer, helium, and other essential goods, alongside negatively affecting tourism and air travel, further exacerbating global economic uncertainties. Amid these significant economic shifts, Dangote Group made a $20 billion investment in refineries in Nigeria, signaling a strategic move to bolster energy infrastructure in Africa. Separately, the World Bank ended a longstanding ban on funding nuclear energy projects last June, indicating a potential shift in its approach to energy development and climate change mitigation. The World Bank is also working closely with Mozambique to expand its energy production capabilities, demonstrating its commitment to supporting energy security in developing nations.
Impact on Lebanese Agriculture
Farmers in southern Lebanon, including Abu Hassan Issa, were observed holding produce on a field near Tyre on April 27, 2026, a stark reminder of the agricultural sector's vulnerability. Lebanon's agriculture minister has stated that the sector will require "years" to recover from the ongoing conflict, showing the long-term damage inflicted on rural livelihoods. Farmers have been significantly affected by successive wars, enduring immense hardship that has impacted their ability to cultivate crops and bring goods to market. These back-to-back conflicts have systematically undermined agricultural infrastructure and farmer resilience.
The disruption extends far beyond individual farms. More than 80% of markets in southern Lebanon are no longer functioning, severely disrupting local economies and food distribution channels. Traders in these conflict-affected areas report that less than one week of essential food stocks remains available, a critical indicator of the region's immediate and dire food security situation. This precarious situation exacerbates concerns about the region's ability to sustain its population without urgent intervention.
Humanitarian Response and Needs
The humanitarian situation in Lebanon is increasingly dire. In Lebanon, an estimated 50,000 to 150,000 people in the south require immediate humanitarian support, noting the extensive needs created by the recent escalation. The World Food Programme (WFP) has responded swiftly, dispatching ten convoys to the south to provide aid to the most vulnerable populations. This effort is key, especially considering that prior to the latest escalation, approximately 900,000 people across Lebanon were already experiencing food insecurity, a testament to the pre-existing vulnerabilities within the country. World Bank President Banga expressed concern about ensuring affected populations can navigate the crisis without further deteriorating their fiscal situation, emphasizing the need for full support that addresses both immediate and long-term economic stability.
A two-week ceasefire was announced by Donald Trump, raising hopes for a de-escalation of hostilities. However, Iran indicated on Friday that blocked Iranian assets must be released and a ceasefire must be established in Lebanon before U.S.-Iran talks, scheduled for Saturday in Pakistan, could proceed. This conditionality adds a layer of complexity to diplomatic efforts and shows the interconnectedness of regional conflicts and international negotiations. The ongoing humanitarian crisis and the broader economic ramifications necessitate sustained attention and coordinated international action to mitigate the suffering and prevent further destabilization in Lebanon and the wider region.