Statistics Lebanon conducted a poll revealing that 66.4% of Shia participants in Lebanon support handing over the weapons of Hezbollah to the state. This figure indicates a shift in public sentiment regarding the group’s military autonomy. Lebanese scholar Ali Al-Amin addressed the implications of these findings for the country's political future. "The translation of this poll into political reality depends on the politicians, as they are the ones requested to establish a relationship with those who demand the project of the state and its sole authority in matters of peace and war, and all issues that states handle for their peoples and homelands," Ali Al-Amin stated. Officials in Beirut have not yet issued a formal response to the data.
Internal Dissent Within Community
Statistics Lebanon identified that 29.6% of Shia participants in the poll prefer that Hezbollah retain its weapons. This portion of the community remains committed to the group's continued military presence, contrasting with the majority that favors state control over weaponry.
Hezbollah opened a front in Lebanon in 2023 to provide support for Hamas in Gaza. This military engagement prompted significant shifts in local opinion regarding the group's strategic choices. In March 2024, Hezbollah launched missiles toward Israel following the assassination of Iranian leader Ali Khamenei. These developments exacerbated existing concerns about the impact of the group’s military autonomy on the national interest.
Ali Al-Amin, a Lebanese scholar, interpreted these developments as a catalyst for changing perspectives within the Shia community. "This poll shows that the Shia community has increasingly felt the danger of the policy adopted by Hezbollah and its allies after the support war, and new voices have begun to appear calling for reform and changing this policy which has harmed the Lebanese in general and the sect in particular, especially its homeland Lebanon and its Arab surroundings," Ali Al-Amin stated. His assessment notes a growing internal debate over whether the group’s actions remain aligned with the broader welfare of the population. While supporters of the movement maintain that the weapons are necessary for defense, critics now cite the regional consequences of the group’s combat operations as a primary driver for the desire to reform existing power structures within the country.
